Tagged : armls ppi

Graph: ARMLS PPI

What an interesting measure, this ARMLS PPI.  We all want to know what the future may bring, or do we?  It depends on the accuracy.  Inaccurate prediction are as good as worthless, but accurate ones are the golden goose especially when you can make bets for potential profit on the declines as well as the increases like with stocks, but alas those who purport to know, for certain, the future are usually quacks even though they often have a following.

In the short term it's easier to make an educated estimate then the long term and the ARMLS PPI certainly falls into the former category, extending predictions only 4 months.

From the looks or it we're in for a wobbly ride with a slight increase in the next 2 months followed but a…

The most updated ARMLS PPI - a forecasting measure that tried to predict future price movement by pending sales data shows the median price may dip down to a 9 year low.  

That's assuming the prediction comes to fruition as prescribed.  Overall the results of the now well past us peak in notices of trustee sales and the now occurring sales and resulting active bank owned homes has something to do with it, especially in combination with the end of the home buyer tax credit.

What this shows is the the market is far from stable, but it's also important to remember that prices fluctuate seasonally as a norm of the market cycle which usually peaks in June and July.

About the ARMLS Pending Price Index:

"The ARMLS Pending Price IndexTM (PPITM)…

The peak sales season in Greater Phoenix is around June, so it won't be surprising when we get a little settling in the coming months.  That's pretty much normal, more so since the heavily influential tax credit ends and the pending contract still within it's guidelines closed by the end of June 30th 2010 (the deadline to close) and the have, but weakening, influence of foreclosure and short sale properties continue to weigh heavily on the market. 

And so the new ARMLS PPI forecast confirms this trend, with both the median price and average price index showing what is and will be (in hindsight) a peak in June and a sight decline in the heat of the summer.  We'll come back to confirm these as new data arrives.

graph © - ARMLS

"The ARMLS…