Predicting Phoenix Home Prices Via The ARMLS PPI

Graph: ARMLS PPI

What an interesting measure, this ARMLS PPI.  We all want to know what the future may bring, or do we?  It depends on the accuracy.  Inaccurate prediction are as good as worthless, but accurate ones are the golden goose especially when you can make bets for potential profit on the declines as well as the increases like with stocks, but alas those who purport to know, for certain, the future are usually quacks even though they often have a following.

In the short term it's easier to make an educated estimate then the long term and the ARMLS PPI certainly falls into the former category, extending predictions only 4 months.

From the looks or it we're in for a wobbly ride with a slight increase in the next 2 months followed but a slip to a measly $110,000 median price in December, but then again December is usually a weak month for sale because of the anticipation and participation in the holiday season, so the following statement is apt.

"In general, optimism generated through gradual market gains over the last twelve months is dampened by predictions in the fourth quarter."

"The ARMLS Pending Price IndexTM is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS. It predicts the Average Sales Price and Median Price four months into the future based on the pending inventory in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing System."

For more in-depth reviews of Phoenix market data visit are more numerical and Greater Phoenix focused weblog Phoenix Market Trends and come back here for more Central Phoenix specific reports coming soon, including a quarterly overview of sales in historic districts - for instance.