Market Statistics

For those having the deal with the market in the price range under $200,000 that state of the market is quite clear: it's very competitive, there are other buyers interested in the same properties, there are a lot of cash buyer and inventory is dwindling. 

At last look inventory is under 3 months for homes under $200,000 and often around 2 months for many price segments.

One such example of many is the tale of one client who has already put in 27 contracts with only 2 successfully landing in escrow. That is a paltry ratio. These are properties where our offer price is 0-15% above asking price, these are properties that are not under priced. Most are short sales and a few normal sales.

REO properties are virtually inaccessible since most have a…

The graph below does not need much in term comments. It's fairly self explanatory. 36% of home sales in Phoenix in July were cash and it was as high as 42% a few months ago. It's been like this in the 35%+ range for the last year or so and it's been high since  at least late 2008.

Compare this to the previous years when it's been under 10%. This is a completely different market then it was years ago when many of the investors where speculators with a donut shop job and 5 homes sitting there to be flipped to the guy working at the coffee shop. Nothing wrong with those job, but people who can't carry the mortgages should not be investing this way. 

It's a different world and a different market now: much has changes.

Active inventory continues to decline despite the market having passed the peak buying season.  Take a look at the graph below by the Cromford Report (modified by us) which shows total residential active inventory on the 16th of August as only 19,761.  Compare it to the same time in 2010 with 36,885 properties and 31,676 two years ago.

This is why it's getting difficult to find a home to buy. Furthermore, if you eliminate all those homes that are active, but are truly not participating in the market: they are on the market, but not in it, then the real inventory is even lower.

I think it's rather amazing what's going on, some would say frustrating since they cannot buy a home; being, often beat out by other eager buyers.

If you looked over the most recent Phoenix market stats report with July 2011 numbers your probably saw some oddities and arrived at some contradictory conclusions. 

On the one had people are nearly jumping over each other, though in an orderly manner, to get homes under contract yet prices continue to be weak and will probably decline at least a bit over the next 1-2 quarters.  Just take a look at the inventory numbers below. 2011 New inventory is below the 2010 and the trend has diverged. 

Even total inventory is at a long time low. Take out AWC contracts and truly active and available inventory is only about 20,000 units. That's low, yet prices don't rise.

The economy has not improved, there are not more jobs out there, people are still…

This months Phoenix housing market report is being relegated to inphoenix.com from it's normal place at PhoenixMarketTrends, but only for this month as we gear up PMT for a relaunch into version 3.0 on a completely new platform and new simpler design. In September market reports will begin anew there.

So let's get down into the July 2011 Phoenix home sales numbers.

Active inventory continues a nose dive into nothingness. We'll not quite that deep I hope because we'll have nothing to sell, but it's getting close, close enough that the market is extremely competitive: it's certainly a seller's market.  My friend who rents told me the home he lives in went on the market for $100,000, but the seller got multiple offers and it sold for $120,000.  These…

Looking for homes is one thing, finding  good homes and getting them under contract is another. It's tough to get a good home; to beat out the competition. It's at once not surprising people are buying like crazy and a surprise to see how they still have confidence in housing after all its been through. 

For many it simply makes sense, from owner occupant buyers to investor the prices are too good to pass up.

[ Via Public Redords ]

What is amazing is how low prices have dropped. For those who purchased before the market began its climb up the glass mountain it's almost unfair. Take a look at the example above of a home I was looking at for a client. It's only one of many homes on the market in a similar situation. Purchased for $120,205…

The spring and summer Phoenix home buying and selling season have been brisk with awesome numbers of homes selling and a dwindling inventory, leaving supply at a long time low. 

Despite the brisk sales prices remain weak, not really succumbing to the dictates of market buzz. This trend may signal a weak market underpayment, meaning if supply ticks up prices may follow.

"W. P. Carey Professor Emeritus Jay Butler cautions that it’s still too soon to assume that this positive trend will continue."

Listen to a discussion with Jay Butler about the current trends and future prospects.

Over at Phoenix Market Trends there is more in-depth review of the June 2011 Phoenix real estate market.

A quick look at one of the graphs indicates, at least, by the numbers a market in favor of the seller. 2.9 month of supply when generally accepted balanced norms are 4-4.5 months, very high demand on the street and a dwindling supply mean added competition from other buyers, but in reality it's not as wild as the number show it should be.

Graph is posted via Phoenix Market Trends from an original at The Cromford Report.

The inset lower right graph is one indicating seasonality in the Phoenix real estate market.

A Grocery Store In Downtown Phoenix

Finally something similar to a grocery store, though not quite is opening in Downtown Phoenix. 

If you follow Oakville on Facebook you’ve been privy to some leaked photos recently teasing everything from the store’s wide selection of Arizona-made wines to bathroom tissue (complete with the laugh-out-loud caption, “We’ve got TOILET PAPER! oooooo ahhhhhhh!!!!!” Hilarious. (Downtown Phoenix)

Portland Place Condos

Portland Place Condos in the Roosevelt historic district.  

If you're in the market for a house than the playground probably seems busy to you despite all the hoopla about the national market being slow. You're having to compete with other buyers for homes and each time something hits the market you have to move you tush and get there fast to see the home before someone else snatches it up.

The dark red thick line represents sales in Phoenix in 2011.  All the other lines are sales in the last few years, 2006-2007 excepting because these were odd markets, not following the common trends. 

[Graph: The Cromford Report modified by inPhoenix Realty Group ]

The vertical black line is the beginning of July and the highlighted yellow area represents the peak time for sale each year which begins in spring…